Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1820 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–45%.

Safest bet that day AA 1820 DFW 08:20 → ONT 09:38 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time Riskiest AA 1695 DFW 21:17 → ONT 22:29 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1820 American Flight history →	DFW 08:20	ONT 09:38	21%	4%	1.0%	79%
AA 2635 American Flight history →	DFW 12:20	ONT 13:34	24%	7%	0.9%	84%
F9 4689 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:51	ONT 18:19	25%	10%	1.6%	79%
AA 2956 American Flight history →	DFW 10:40	ONT 11:56	25%	6%	1.0%	74%
AA 2147 American	DFW 19:02	ONT 20:18	38%	11%	2.5%	no record
AA 1695 American	DFW 21:17	ONT 22:29	45%	20%	10.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON