Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2282 at 10:21 is the safest bet, 23% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 39%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2282 American Flight history →	DFW 10:21	ORF 14:34	23%	8%	1.1%	76%
AA 1379 American	DFW 20:04	ORF 00:23	39%	15%	3.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 08:50 → DCA 12:52AA 1177	2h 12m Washington	DCA 15:04 → ORF 16:23AA 5601 · flown by PSA	6h 33m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → ORF 14:06DL 2925	7h 46m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:16 → MSP 13:44DL 2972	2h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 15:49 → ORF 19:51DL 5518 · flown by Endeavor	7h 35m	96%	84%
American Details →	DFW 07:27 → LGA 11:58AA 1609	3h 16m New York	LGA 15:14 → ORF 16:51AA 4358 · flown by Republic	8h 24m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	1h 01m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → ORF 11:57DL 3066	5h 37m	94%	83%
Delta Details →	DFW 07:15 → BOS 12:08DL 2351	1h 57m Boston	BOS 14:05 → ORF 16:00DL 5858 · flown by Republic	7h 45m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:10 → ATL 14:14DL 961	3h 36m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → ORF 19:39DL 1346	7h 29m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	DFW 08:15 → JFK 12:59DL 454	2h 24m New York	JFK 15:23 → ORF 17:06DL 5395 · flown by Endeavor	7h 51m	98%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DFW 13:42 → ATL 17:04DL 414	46m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → ORF 19:39DL 1346	4h 57m	75%	60%
United Details →	DFW 16:00 → IAH 17:17UA 2682	1h 09m Houston	IAH 18:26 → ORF 22:39UA 6286 · flown by Mesa	5h 39m	73%	56%
American Details →	DFW 18:05 → CLT 21:55AA 1703	1h 05m Charlotte	CLT 23:00 → ORF 00:18 +1AA 2674	5h 13m	71%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON