Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2655 at 08:54 is the safest bet, 22% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–45%.

Safest bet that day AA 2655 DFW 08:54 → PDX 11:08 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time Riskiest AA 2298 DFW 21:12 → PDX 23:25 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2655 American Flight history →	DFW 08:54	PDX 11:08	22%	3%	1.0%	75%
AS 1650 Alaska	DFW 14:04	PDX 15:55	24%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 2496 American Flight history →	DFW 11:20	PDX 13:26	29%	5%	1.0%	76%
AA 2028 American Flight history →	DFW 14:55	PDX 17:03	34%	8%	1.1%	51%
AA 685 American Flight history →	DFW 17:20	PDX 19:29	36%	12%	1.6%	53%
AA 2298 American Flight history →	DFW 21:12	PDX 23:25	45%	18%	7.1%	53%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	DFW 12:30 → SLC 14:20DL 2798	57m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:17 → PDX 16:09DL 1244	5h 39m	81%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON