Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 474 at 07:08 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 474 DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2942 DFW 21:18 → PHX 21:55 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 474 American Flight history →	DFW 07:08	PHX 07:34	17%	5%	1.1%	84%
AA 2905 American	DFW 10:26	PHX 11:03	18%	6%	1.1%	no record
F9 3971 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 11:54	PHX 12:26	19%	6%	1.1%	81%
AA 520 American Flight history →	DFW 08:55	PHX 09:29	21%	5%	1.0%	76%
AA 359 American	DFW 11:34	PHX 12:00	23%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 336 American Flight history →	DFW 12:30	PHX 13:07	24%	7%	0.9%	72%
AA 1548 American Flight history →	DFW 13:40	PHX 14:18	25%	9%	0.9%	92%worse than usual
AA 1232 American	DFW 16:30	PHX 17:10	28%	12%	1.5%	no record
AA 2108 American Flight history →	DFW 14:30	PHX 14:57	30%	10%	0.9%	60%
AA 3232 American	DFW 20:07	PHX 20:44	33%	12%	2.1%	no record
F9 3283 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 21:02	PHX 21:50	34%	20%	12.2%	80%worse than usual
AA 2047 American Flight history →	DFW 17:30	PHX 18:07	36%	14%	1.9%	76%worse than usual
AA 2942 American Flight history →	DFW 21:18	PHX 21:55	41%	19%	11.6%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON