Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3982 at 09:13 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 3982 DFW 09:13 → PNS 11:09 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2863 DFW 11:09 → PNS 13:06 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3982 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:13	PNS 11:09	14%	4%	6.1%	90%
MQ 4114 Envoy	DFW 15:56	PNS 17:44	18%	6%	0.9%	no record
OH 5554 PSA	DFW 18:44	PNS 20:52	27%	16%	6.2%	no record
AA 2863 American	DFW 11:09	PNS 13:06	30%	11%	3.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON