Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2548 at 10:45 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2548 DFW 10:45 → PSP 11:57 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time Riskiest AA 2709 DFW 19:35 → PSP 20:36 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2548 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	PSP 11:57	25%	6%	1.2%	68%
OO 9909 SkyWest	DFW 17:21	PSP 18:28	29%	13%	2.6%	no record
AA 2709 American Flight history →	DFW 19:35	PSP 20:36	38%	13%	2.8%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON