Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:20, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2312 American Flight history →	DFW 13:46	PWM 18:56	28%	9%	0.8%	56%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	3h 13m Denver	DEN 10:06 → PWM 16:07UA 372	9h 22m	100%	87%
American Details →	DFW 05:02 → DCA 09:03AA 1618	2h 01m Washington	DCA 11:04 → PWM 13:07AA 5528 · flown by PSA	7h 05m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → PWM 12:50DL 2479	6h 30m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → DTW 09:04DL 2183	56m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → PWM 11:55DL 426	5h 35m	92%	82%
American Details →	DFW 07:02 → DCA 10:59AA 1623	3h 44m Washington	DCA 14:43 → PWM 16:34AA 1423	8h 32m	100%	82%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:41AA 1091	1h 44m Charlotte	CLT 10:25 → PWM 12:50AA 1744	6h 50m	97%	81%
American Details →	DFW 08:29 → ORD 11:00AA 328	2h 18m Chicago	ORD 13:18 → PWM 17:04AA 4741 · flown by Republic	7h 35m	98%	81%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 13m Charlotte	CLT 13:57 → PWM 16:24AA 1747	8h 24m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 14:15 → ORD 16:58UA 2160	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 18:08 → PWM 21:41UA 1401	6h 26m	75%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON