Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3768 DFW 08:20 → RAP 09:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3567 DFW 20:03 → RAP 21:31 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3768 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:20	RAP 09:47	9%	2%	1.0%	90%
MQ 3788 Envoy	DFW 10:54	RAP 12:27	11%	3%	1.0%	no record
AA 3532 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 15:08	RAP 16:33	14%	5%	1.2%	78%
AA 3567 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:03	RAP 21:31	17%	8%	3.3%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON