Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: F9 3330 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 39–41%.

Safest bet that day F9 3330 DFW 08:50 → RDU 12:51 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 979 DFW 17:30 → RDU 21:21 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 3330 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 08:50	RDU 12:51	14%	5%	1.0%	88%
AA 2683 American Flight history →	DFW 07:03	RDU 11:02	16%	4%	1.0%	84%
AA 2693 American Flight history →	DFW 09:39	RDU 13:37	25%	5%	1.0%	72%
AA 2091 American Flight history →	DFW 12:17	RDU 16:15	27%	7%	1.0%	85%worse than usual
AA 542 American Flight history →	DFW 20:04	RDU 23:48	39%	14%	2.0%	58%
AA 979 American Flight history →	DFW 17:30	RDU 21:21	41%	14%	1.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON