Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1911 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 21% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 1911 DFW 08:50 → RNO 10:11 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3251 DFW 17:58 → RNO 19:24 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1911 American Flight history →	DFW 08:50	RNO 10:11	21%	4%	1.4%	83%
AA 324 American Flight history →	DFW 11:55	RNO 13:17	30%	7%	1.4%	73%
AA 1273 American Flight history →	DFW 22:32	RNO 23:58	36%	18%	12.2%	65%
AA 3251 American Flight history →	DFW 17:58	RNO 19:24	38%	12%	2.9%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON