Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 406 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–45%.

Safest bet that day AA 406 DFW 05:00 → SAT 06:29 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 3097 DFW 21:56 → SAT 23:04 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 406 American	DFW 05:00	SAT 06:29	12%	5%	0.9%	no record
AA 1836 American Flight history →	DFW 07:44	SAT 09:03	16%	5%	0.9%	85%
AA 2759 American Flight history →	DFW 08:53	SAT 10:12	17%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 413 American Flight history →	DFW 10:42	SAT 12:02	20%	8%	0.9%	71%
AA 3899 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 17:32	SAT 18:44	20%	7%	4.1%	62%
AA 2768 American	DFW 12:03	SAT 13:18	24%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 1961 American Flight history →	DFW 14:31	SAT 15:48	27%	11%	0.9%	67%
AA 2374 American Flight history →	DFW 16:32	SAT 17:44	36%	15%	1.7%	53%
AA 2368 American Flight history →	DFW 18:46	SAT 20:01	38%	14%	2.6%	59%
AA 1406 American Flight history →	DFW 20:48	SAT 22:00	39%	14%	3.3%	59%
AA 546 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	SAT 21:03	40%	15%	3.3%	49%
AA 3097 American Flight history →	DFW 21:56	SAT 23:04	45%	22%	15.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON