Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 1822 at 10:11, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1822 American	DFW 10:11	SBA 11:45	22%	6%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Barbara on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31DL 1291	1h 19m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59DL 3841 · flown by SkyWest	6h 14m	92%	84%
American Details →	DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474	2h 29m Phoenix	PHX 10:03 → SBA 11:56AA 2928	6h 48m	96%	80%
American Details →	DFW 13:40 → PHX 14:18AA 1548	2h 59m Phoenix	PHX 17:17 → SBA 19:08AA 1855	7h 28m	100%	79%
United Details →	DFW 06:00 → SFO 07:47UA 790	2h 42m San Francisco	SFO 10:29 → SBA 11:52UA 1578	7h 52m	99%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DFW 18:25 → SLC 20:18DL 2811	47m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:05 → SBA 22:05DL 3803 · flown by SkyWest	5h 40m	66%	61%
United Details →	DFW 16:52 → DEN 18:22UA 1303	1h 01m Denver	DEN 19:23 → SBA 20:59UA 2479	6h 07m	68%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON