Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 4051 at 07:37 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–40%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4051 DFW 07:37 → SDF 10:53 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2212 DFW 18:19 → SDF 21:38 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4051 Envoy	DFW 07:37	SDF 10:53	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 3791 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:31	SDF 12:48	11%	2%	0.8%	94%
AA 3629 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:11	SDF 17:27	17%	5%	0.9%	74%
AA 2813 American	DFW 12:16	SDF 15:35	35%	10%	1.0%	no record
AA 2049 American Flight history →	DFW 15:40	SDF 18:58	37%	13%	1.1%	46%
AA 2212 American	DFW 18:19	SDF 21:38	40%	13%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON