Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 804 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–47%.

Safest bet that day DL 804 DFW 06:30 → SEA 08:46 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 2009 DFW 19:31 → SEA 21:54 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 804 Delta Flight history →	DFW 06:30	SEA 08:46	10%	3%	1.0%	86%
AS 543 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 06:24	SEA 08:45	16%	3%	1.0%	81%
AA 707 American Flight history →	DFW 07:10	SEA 09:25	25%	3%	1.0%	83%
AA 767 American Flight history →	DFW 08:25	SEA 10:50	26%	5%	1.1%	74%
AS 365 Alaska Flight history →	DFW 09:00	SEA 11:20	28%	3%	1.0%	77%
AS 321 Alaska	DFW 15:55	SEA 17:55	30%	8%	1.0%	no record
DL 1806 Delta	DFW 16:52	SEA 19:01	31%	11%	1.2%	no record
AA 717 American Flight history →	DFW 10:45	SEA 13:03	32%	6%	1.0%	76%
AS 9577 Alaska	DFW 10:21	SEA 12:17	34%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 757 American Flight history →	DFW 12:17	SEA 14:31	37%	7%	1.0%	75%worse than usual
AS 341 Alaska	DFW 21:20	SEA 23:23	38%	16%	6.2%	no record
AA 727 American Flight history →	DFW 14:33	SEA 16:47	39%	9%	1.0%	57%
AA 1483 American	DFW 17:30	SEA 19:50	40%	15%	1.9%	no record
AA 2009 American Flight history →	DFW 19:31	SEA 21:54	47%	15%	2.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON