Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4331 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day AA 4331 DFW 07:44 → SGF 09:16 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3671 DFW 19:01 → SGF 20:31 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4331 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:44	SGF 09:16	7%	2%	0.9%	93%
AA 4328 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 09:37	SGF 11:07	10%	3%	1.0%	86%
AA 3494 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:34	SGF 14:03	11%	3%	1.0%	86%
AA 3556 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:17	SGF 15:46	14%	5%	1.0%	85%
AA 4311 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 16:57	SGF 18:27	18%	8%	1.9%	76%
MQ 3591 Envoy	DFW 17:45	SGF 19:14	19%	9%	2.2%	no record
AA 4092 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 20:23	SGF 21:54	19%	7%	2.5%	82%
AA 3671 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:01	SGF 20:31	20%	8%	2.4%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON