Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4009 at 08:28 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day AA 4009 DFW 08:28 → SHV 09:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 4902 DFW 21:52 → SHV 23:02 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4009 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 08:28	SHV 09:37	9%	2%	1.8%	92%
MQ 3479 Envoy	DFW 12:41	SHV 13:51	14%	4%	1.6%	no record
OO 6331 SkyWest	DFW 10:14	SHV 11:24	16%	8%	1.0%	no record
AA 6245 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 19:22	SHV 20:32	23%	12%	4.0%	74%
AA 6410 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 17:13	SHV 18:21	25%	13%	3.7%	75%
AA 4902 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DFW 21:52	SHV 23:02	27%	19%	15.7%	91%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON