Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2046 at 09:16 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2046 DFW 09:16 → SJC 11:04 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 364 DFW 20:06 → SJC 21:56 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2046 American Flight history →	DFW 09:16	SJC 11:04	19%	4%	0.9%	77%
AA 2834 American Flight history →	DFW 12:02	SJC 13:49	24%	5%	0.9%	75%
AA 364 American Flight history →	DFW 20:06	SJC 21:56	34%	10%	3.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON