Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1291 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–48%.

Safest bet that day DL 1291 DFW 07:45 → SLC 09:31 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2507 DFW 21:45 → SLC 23:37 · 48% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1291 Delta Flight history →	DFW 07:45	SLC 09:31	12%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 2798 Delta Flight history →	DFW 12:30	SLC 14:20	17%	4%	0.6%	85%
DL 2800 Delta Flight history →	DFW 14:31	SLC 16:18	21%	6%	0.7%	84%
AA 1878 American	DFW 08:52	SLC 10:50	24%	6%	0.9%	no record
F9 3277 Frontier Flight history →	DFW 16:27	SLC 18:28	25%	11%	1.5%	84%
DL 2811 Delta Flight history →	DFW 18:25	SLC 20:18	27%	8%	1.1%	74%
AA 1871 American	DFW 11:24	SLC 13:14	35%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 1456 American Flight history →	DFW 14:09	SLC 16:00	39%	13%	1.0%	62%
AA 558 American Flight history →	DFW 18:48	SLC 20:34	43%	16%	2.6%	50%
AA 2993 American Flight history →	DFW 21:10	SLC 22:59	47%	24%	11.9%	47%
AA 2507 American Flight history →	DFW 21:45	SLC 23:37	48%	21%	10.1%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON