Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2081 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 20% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 2081 DFW 08:30 → SMF 10:22 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 509 DFW 22:30 → SMF 23:59 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2081 American Flight history →	DFW 08:30	SMF 10:22	20%	5%	0.8%	92%worse than usual
AA 2078 American Flight history →	DFW 11:47	SMF 13:29	27%	7%	0.8%	79%
AA 651 American Flight history →	DFW 16:43	SMF 18:20	34%	14%	1.4%	57%
AA 509 American Flight history →	DFW 22:30	SMF 23:59	39%	18%	9.3%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON