tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 4072 at 13:17, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
MQ 4072 Envoy DFW 13:17 SRQ 16:58 21% 5% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sarasota/Bradenton is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SRQ 11:48DL 3104 5h 28m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → DFW 13:42 → ATL 17:04DL 414 3h 47m Atlanta ATL 20:51 → SRQ 22:27DL 2997 7h 45m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → DFW 07:08 → ORD 09:50UA 1695 1h 20m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 7h 04m 95% 74%
AmericanDetails → DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:41AA 1091 1h 44m Charlotte CLT 10:25 → SRQ 12:24AA 1452 6h 24m 97% 73%
AmericanDetails → DFW 16:30 → MIA 20:35AA 3308 2h 19m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 6h 29m 90% 69%
AmericanDetails → DFW 11:55 → CLT 15:36AA 1696 3h 54m Charlotte CLT 19:30 → SRQ 21:23AA 2604 8h 28m 99% 66%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DFW 11:10 → ATL 14:14DL 961 47m Atlanta ATL 15:01 → SRQ 16:37DL 3115 4h 27m 62% 50%
AmericanDetails → DFW 18:10 → MIA 22:05AA 2206 49m Miami MIA 22:54 → SRQ 23:59AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 4h 49m 44% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON