Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 4074 at 10:27 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–39%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4074 DFW 10:27 → STL 12:23 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1445 DFW 21:43 → STL 23:36 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4074 Envoy	DFW 10:27	STL 12:23	13%	3%	1.1%	no record
AA 3333 American	DFW 07:35	STL 09:31	16%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 3944 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:54	STL 16:49	19%	4%	1.2%	91%
AA 1363 American Flight history →	DFW 12:58	STL 14:51	32%	8%	0.9%	57%
AA 2487 American Flight history →	DFW 17:20	STL 19:15	36%	13%	1.8%	50%
AA 2761 American Flight history →	DFW 18:02	STL 19:53	38%	12%	1.8%	56%
AA 1445 American	DFW 21:43	STL 23:36	39%	18%	10.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON