Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Phoenix, leaving 08:55, is the safest bet: 62% chance of reaching Santa Rosa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 3766 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 10:17	STS 12:23	21%	4%	0.9%	90%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Rosa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Rosa is 2 h behind Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	DFW 07:08 → PHX 07:34AA 474	2h 51m Phoenix	PHX 10:25 → STS 12:52AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	7h 44m	97%	81%
Alaska Details →	DFW 06:24 → SEA 08:45AS 543	2h 12m Seattle	SEA 10:57 → STS 12:53AS 1347	8h 29m	97%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	56m Phoenix	PHX 10:25 → STS 12:52AA 3757 · flown by Envoy	5h 57m	74%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON