Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 05:10, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Charlotte Amalie on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte Amalie is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DFW 05:10 → IAH 06:22UA 2260	3h 30m Houston	IAH 09:52 → STT 15:43UA 1908	9h 33m	98%	82%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:41AA 1091	3h 51m Charlotte	CLT 12:32 → STT 16:24AA 2004	10h 24m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → STT 13:49DL 1899	7h 29m	98%	75%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → MIA 08:55AA 3189	1h 10m Miami	MIA 10:05 → STT 13:02AA 943	7h 02m	86%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON