Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 421 at 19:25, with a 43% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 421 American Flight history →	DFW 19:25	SYR 23:40	43%	15%	3.4%	58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Syracuse is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DFW 06:45 → ATL 09:59DL 893	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 13:05 → SYR 15:16DL 2991	7h 31m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	DFW 11:16 → MSP 13:44DL 2972	1h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 15:34 → SYR 18:52DL 2546	6h 36m	95%	80%
American Details →	DFW 07:30 → PHL 11:52AA 415	1h 20m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → SYR 14:34AA 5924 · flown by Piedmont	6h 04m	91%	78%
Delta Details →	DFW 15:10 → DTW 18:54DL 735	2h 41m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → SYR 22:58DL 1689	6h 48m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	DFW 05:20 → ATL 08:34DL 401	49m Atlanta	ATL 09:23 → SYR 11:33DL 1375	5h 13m	90%	76%
Delta Details →	DFW 08:15 → JFK 12:59DL 454	1h 35m New York	JFK 14:34 → SYR 16:11DL 5328 · flown by Endeavor	6h 56m	94%	75%
American Details →	DFW 05:00 → CLT 08:41AA 1091	2h 01m Charlotte	CLT 10:42 → SYR 12:43AA 2730	6h 43m	97%	75%
American Details →	DFW 07:00 → CLT 10:44AA 317	3h 14m Charlotte	CLT 13:58 → SYR 15:59AA 1950	7h 59m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 14:15 → ORD 16:58UA 2160	1h 11m Chicago	ORD 18:09 → SYR 21:09UA 2481	5h 54m	75%	53%
JetBlue Details →	DFW 11:28 → FLL 15:24B6 482	1h 06m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 16:30 → SYR 19:40B6 1738	7h 12m	69%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON