Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2516 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 19% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 28–47%.

Safest bet that day AA 2516 DFW 07:05 → TPA 10:47 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 2401 DFW 18:19 → TPA 21:57 · 47% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2516 American Flight history →	DFW 07:05	TPA 10:47	19%	4%	2.1%	84%
AA 3112 American Flight history →	DFW 09:48	TPA 13:33	28%	5%	2.5%	76%
AA 1957 American	DFW 12:47	TPA 16:30	33%	7%	2.2%	no record
AA 2512 American Flight history →	DFW 14:16	TPA 17:58	41%	11%	2.5%	67%
AA 2401 American Flight history →	DFW 18:19	TPA 21:57	47%	14%	3.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON