Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4063 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–41%.

Safest bet that day AA 4063 DFW 07:05 → TUL 08:14 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2014 DFW 20:25 → TUL 21:41 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 31% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4063 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 07:05	TUL 08:14	10%	2%	1.1%	95%
AA 2348 American Flight history →	DFW 08:42	TUL 10:01	21%	4%	1.0%	80%
AA 2352 American Flight history →	DFW 10:43	TUL 12:02	26%	6%	1.0%	87%worse than usual
AA 2830 American	DFW 16:19	TUL 17:38	35%	15%	2.1%	no record
AA 531 American Flight history →	DFW 18:30	TUL 19:48	39%	15%	2.8%	62%
AA 2851 American Flight history →	DFW 19:10	TUL 20:18	39%	14%	2.9%	85%worse than usual
AA 2014 American Flight history →	DFW 20:25	TUL 21:41	41%	15%	4.7%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON