Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1014 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 25% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–45%.

Safest bet that day AA 1014 DFW 08:20 → TUS 08:38 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 1580 DFW 21:26 → TUS 21:55 · 45% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1014 American Flight history →	DFW 08:20	TUS 08:38	25%	5%	1.1%	83%
AA 2187 American	DFW 10:40	TUS 11:10	27%	7%	1.1%	no record
AA 2926 American Flight history →	DFW 12:11	TUS 12:26	33%	8%	1.1%	68%
AA 3140 American	DFW 17:01	TUS 17:27	38%	13%	2.1%	no record
AA 584 American Flight history →	DFW 14:46	TUS 15:01	42%	11%	1.2%	60%
AA 1207 American Flight history →	DFW 19:35	TUS 19:51	45%	16%	2.8%	58%
AA 1580 American	DFW 21:26	TUS 21:55	45%	23%	10.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON