Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MQ 4199 at 12:02, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MQ 4199 Envoy	DFW 12:02	TVC 15:55	18%	3%	1.1%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Dallas-Fort Worth). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	DFW 07:00 → IAH 08:26UA 2670	3h 29m Houston	IAH 11:55 → TVC 15:59UA 6261 · flown by Mesa	7h 59m	99%	99%
Delta Details →	DFW 06:55 → MSP 09:23DL 1276	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 10:29 → TVC 13:04DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	5h 09m	94%	85%
United Details →	DFW 05:45 → DEN 06:53UA 773	2h 54m Denver	DEN 09:47 → TVC 14:24UA 2420	7h 39m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	DFW 15:10 → DTW 18:54DL 735	2h 36m Detroit	DTW 21:30 → TVC 22:41DL 2424	6h 31m	94%	75%
American Details →	DFW 05:53 → ORD 08:32AA 2999	3h 40m Chicago	ORD 12:12 → TVC 14:32AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	7h 39m	100%	72%
United Details →	DFW 14:15 → ORD 16:58UA 2160	3h 16m Chicago	ORD 20:14 → TVC 22:25UA 677	7h 10m	90%	53%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DFW 17:47 → ORD 20:30UA 1564	53m Chicago	ORD 21:23 → TVC 23:29UA 2071	4h 42m	58%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON