Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: MQ 4111 at 07:26 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–32%.

Safest bet that day MQ 4111 DFW 07:26 → XNA 08:47 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1197 DFW 19:55 → XNA 21:20 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 4111 Envoy	DFW 07:26	XNA 08:47	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
MQ 3603 Envoy	DFW 08:28	XNA 09:48	10%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 3803 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 12:42	XNA 14:03	11%	4%	0.9%	91%
AA 3840 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 14:16	XNA 15:37	13%	5%	1.0%	79%
AA 4101 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DFW 19:46	XNA 21:09	21%	9%	2.5%	71%
AA 2025 American	DFW 10:00	XNA 11:21	22%	7%	1.0%	no record
MQ 3605 Envoy	DFW 18:15	XNA 19:33	22%	8%	2.6%	no record
AA 2967 American	DFW 11:00	XNA 12:21	26%	9%	1.0%	no record
AA 2150 American	DFW 16:28	XNA 17:51	31%	14%	2.0%	no record
AA 1197 American Flight history →	DFW 19:55	XNA 21:20	32%	15%	2.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON