Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2854 at 07:04 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 25%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2854 American Flight history →	DSM 07:04	CLT 10:30	13%	4%	1.0%	90%
AA 2962 American Flight history →	DSM 13:28	CLT 16:47	25%	6%	1.5%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → CLT 13:31DL 2157	6h 50m	98%	84%
United Details →	DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982	3h 21m Houston	IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa	8h 42m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	DSM 16:07 → ATL 19:14DL 2094	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177	6h 51m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	1h 38m Detroit	DTW 10:37 → CLT 12:24DL 2684	5h 16m	92%	80%
American Details →	DSM 07:02 → ORD 08:45AA 4383 · flown by Republic	3h 05m Chicago	ORD 11:50 → CLT 14:54AA 3021	6h 52m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:40 → ATL 14:53DL 1704	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 17:05 → CLT 18:24DL 3158	5h 44m	97%	74%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor	1h 40m Detroit	DTW 14:54 → CLT 16:48DL 1429	5h 23m	87%	72%
American Details →	DSM 13:08 → PHL 16:56AA 5479 · flown by PSA	2h 03m Philadelphia	PHL 18:59 → CLT 20:55AA 2189	6h 47m	95%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DSM 18:03 → MSP 19:15DL 5020 · flown by Endeavor	59m Minneapolis	MSP 20:14 → CLT 23:44DL 2929	4h 41m	73%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON