Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OH 5238 at 06:58, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


OH 5238 PSA	DSM 06:58	DCA 10:21	13%	4%	1.4%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 06:59 → MSP 08:30DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	1h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	5h 49m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:58 → MSP 12:25DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	2h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	6h 11m	98%	87%
American Details →	DSM 07:02 → ORD 08:45AA 4383 · flown by Republic	1h 10m Chicago	ORD 09:55 → DCA 13:08AA 315	5h 06m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	DSM 16:19 → MSP 17:36DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor	2h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:58DL 2961	6h 39m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	2h 12m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	6h 11m	95%	82%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:55 → DTW 08:49DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476	4h 33m	95%	81%
United Details →	DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982	3h 06m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	8h 43m	99%	81%
United Details →	DSM 07:59 → ORD 09:24UA 2668	1h 51m Chicago	ORD 11:15 → DCA 14:22UA 2668	5h 23m	96%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON