Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2326 at 06:39 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2326 DSM 06:39 → DFW 08:49 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 1664 DSM 16:12 → DFW 18:18 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2326 American Flight history →	DSM 06:39	DFW 08:49	14%	6%	1.4%	85%
OH 5582 PSA	DSM 09:50	DFW 12:01	15%	7%	1.5%	no record
AA 3930 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	DSM 18:26	DFW 20:32	28%	15%	11.4%	91%worse than usual
AA 1664 American Flight history →	DSM 16:12	DFW 18:18	35%	14%	2.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON