Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1982 at 06:20, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1982 United Flight history →	DSM 06:20	IAH 08:49	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 6117 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	DSM 15:01	IAH 17:25	20%	8%	1.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	2h 53m Minneapolis	MSP 11:05 → IAH 13:58DL 2673	7h 08m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 39m Atlanta	ATL 12:27 → IAH 13:33DL 1572	7h 52m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:40 → ATL 14:53DL 1704	4h 00m Atlanta	ATL 18:53 → IAH 20:04DL 2327	8h 24m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	3h 30m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → IAH 14:30DL 1307	8h 22m	96%	80%
American Details →	DSM 13:08 → PHL 16:56AA 5479 · flown by PSA	3h 09m Philadelphia	PHL 20:05 → IAH 23:05AA 889	9h 57m	97%	79%
United Details →	DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521	3h 10m Denver	DEN 13:30 → IAH 17:04UA 1829	7h 50m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	DSM 16:07 → ATL 19:14DL 2094	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → IAH 23:57DL 1601	7h 50m	100%	78%
United Details →	DSM 07:59 → ORD 09:24UA 2668	3h 16m Chicago	ORD 12:40 → IAH 15:39UA 1448	7h 40m	98%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON