tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3988 at 14:28, with a 12% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3988 Southwest DSM 14:28 LAS 15:49 12% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Las Vegas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:59 → MSP 08:30DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 2h 40m Minneapolis MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238 7h 27m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982 3h 06m Houston IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524 8h 53m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521 3h 10m Denver DEN 13:30 → LAS 14:38UA 493 7h 24m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:55 → DTW 08:49DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor 3h 26m Detroit DTW 12:15 → LAS 13:28DL 421 9h 33m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 2h 12m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → LAS 12:05DL 466 8h 24m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → DSM 07:59 → ORD 09:24UA 2668 1h 43m Chicago ORD 11:07 → LAS 13:05UA 1803 7h 06m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:00 → IAH 17:33UA 6117 · flown by Mesa 2h 32m Houston IAH 20:05 → LAS 21:23UA 1360 8h 23m 97% 72%
DeltaDetails → DSM 16:19 → MSP 17:36DL 5490 · flown by Endeavor 1h 23m Minneapolis MSP 18:59 → LAS 20:20DL 2246 6h 01m 86% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → DSM 16:07 → ATL 19:14DL 2094 46m Atlanta ATL 20:00 → LAS 21:14DL 722 7h 07m 75% 52%
AmericanDetails → DSM 16:12 → DFW 18:18AA 1664 1h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:22 → LAS 20:11AA 1771 5h 59m 67% 32%
AmericanDetails → DSM 18:26 → DFW 20:32AA 3930 · flown by Envoy 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:27 → LAS 22:18AA 2371 5h 52m 54% 20%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON