tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 17:17, is the safest bet: 58% chance of reaching Los Angeles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 6409 American flown by SkyWest Flight history → DSM 19:00 LAX 21:00 17% 5% 0.6% 74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:59 → MSP 08:30DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 3h 00m Minneapolis MSP 11:30 → LAX 13:23DL 2119 8h 24m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 3h 52m Atlanta ATL 12:40 → LAX 14:12DL 895 10h 31m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → DSM 11:40 → ATL 14:53DL 1704 3h 57m Atlanta ATL 18:50 → LAX 20:21DL 996 10h 41m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521 3h 06m Denver DEN 13:26 → LAX 14:57UA 774 7h 43m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → DSM 06:20 → IAH 08:49UA 1982 3h 44m Houston IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 9h 46m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:00 → IAH 17:33UA 6117 · flown by Mesa 2h 17m Houston IAH 19:50 → LAX 21:26UA 483 8h 26m 97% 74%
UnitedDetails → DSM 07:59 → ORD 09:24UA 2668 3h 36m Chicago ORD 13:00 → LAX 15:34UA 1363 9h 35m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → DSM 07:04 → CLT 10:30AA 2854 2h 51m Charlotte CLT 13:21 → LAX 15:18AA 352 10h 14m 97% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → DSM 18:26 → DFW 20:32AA 3930 · flown by Envoy 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:25 → LAX 22:39AA 2038 6h 13m 52% 22%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON