Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4945 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	DSM 07:33	LGA 11:18	25%	14%	4.5%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:30 → LGA 14:50DL 525	8h 09m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	3h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → LGA 19:00DL 2732	7h 06m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	3h 16m Detroit	DTW 12:15 → LGA 14:05DL 1669	6h 57m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	DSM 16:07 → ATL 19:14DL 2094	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 21:00 → LGA 23:24DL 520	6h 17m	94%	80%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:40 → ATL 14:53DL 1704	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 17:00 → LGA 19:27DL 997	6h 47m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor	2h 42m Detroit	DTW 15:56 → LGA 17:45DL 2602	6h 20m	96%	78%
United Details →	DSM 07:59 → ORD 09:24UA 2668	1h 46m Chicago	ORD 11:10 → LGA 14:30UA 529	5h 31m	95%	78%
American Details →	DSM 07:02 → ORD 08:45AA 4383 · flown by Republic	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 10:13 → LGA 13:34AA 3128	5h 32m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DSM 17:34 → DTW 20:27DL 5305 · flown by Endeavor	1h 23m Detroit	DTW 21:50 → LGA 23:40DL 2603	5h 06m	74%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON