Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 1837 Southwest	DSM 05:48	MDW 07:20	4%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 860 Southwest	DSM 13:18	MDW 14:50	9%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 10:58 → MSP 12:25DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	3h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 16:08 → MDW 17:49DL 4714 · flown by Endeavor	6h 51m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:59 → MSP 08:30DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	3h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 11:42 → MDW 13:16DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 17m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:55 → DTW 08:49DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	3h 31m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → MDW 12:49DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	6h 54m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	52m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 01m	87%	75%
Delta Details →	DSM 16:07 → ATL 19:14DL 2094	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	6h 08m	93%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON