Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 4383 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 4383 DSM 07:02 → ORD 08:45 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest UA 2770 DSM 18:48 → ORD 20:19 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 4383 American flown by Republic Flight history →	DSM 07:02	ORD 08:45	10%	3%	0.9%	100%
OO 6024 SkyWest	DSM 06:07	ORD 07:42	13%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 2668 United Flight history →	DSM 07:59	ORD 09:24	19%	5%	0.6%	85%
OO 4955 SkyWest	DSM 10:39	ORD 12:19	19%	7%	1.2%	no record
UA 2769 United	DSM 11:34	ORD 12:53	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
YX 4769 Republic	DSM 17:54	ORD 19:37	22%	4%	1.1%	no record
OO 4928 SkyWest	DSM 20:02	ORD 21:30	25%	8%	1.6%	no record
OO 6040 SkyWest	DSM 13:40	ORD 15:07	26%	10%	1.7%	no record
OO 4933 SkyWest	DSM 14:48	ORD 16:27	28%	11%	2.0%	no record
UA 312 United Flight history →	DSM 15:02	ORD 16:25	31%	8%	0.7%	73%
UA 2770 United	DSM 18:48	ORD 20:19	32%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 4182 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	DSM 15:24	ORD 17:04	22%	10%	4.8%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON