Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OH 5075 PSA	DSM 05:59	PHL 09:48	9%	5%	1.2%	no record
AA 5479 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DSM 13:08	PHL 16:56	16%	5%	1.2%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor	2h 57m Minneapolis	MSP 11:09 → PHL 14:43DL 2679	6h 53m	95%	87%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor	2h 13m Minneapolis	MSP 14:19 → PHL 17:55DL 2594	6h 01m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → PHL 14:15DL 2131	7h 34m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DSM 16:07 → ATL 19:14DL 2094	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	7h 52m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → PHL 11:41DL 2331	4h 33m	90%	80%
United Details →	DSM 07:59 → ORD 09:24UA 2668	2h 09m Chicago	ORD 11:33 → PHL 14:47UA 2182	5h 48m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	DSM 11:40 → ATL 14:53DL 1704	2h 52m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → PHL 19:51DL 1329	7h 11m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor	1h 46m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	5h 18m	91%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	DSM 17:34 → DTW 20:27DL 5305 · flown by Endeavor	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	4h 42m	70%	61%
United Details →	DSM 15:24 → ORD 17:04UA 4182 · flown by GoJet	55m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776	4h 55m	68%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON