tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 6271 SkyWest DSM 05:24 PHX 06:26 9% 6% 0.8% no record
OO 6262 SkyWest DSM 14:20 PHX 15:46 11% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Des Moines). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:50 → MSP 08:12DL 5402 · flown by Endeavor 3h 20m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 7h 56m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:54 → MSP 12:06DL 4998 · flown by Endeavor 2h 19m Minneapolis MSP 14:25 → PHX 15:38DL 2284 6h 44m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → DSM 10:25 → DTW 13:14DL 5048 · flown by Endeavor 3h 57m Detroit DTW 17:11 → PHX 18:15DL 1135 9h 50m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → DSM 06:08 → DTW 08:59DL 5414 · flown by Endeavor 3h 48m Detroit DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813 9h 42m 96% 81%
DeltaDetails → DSM 05:41 → ATL 08:48DL 2727 2h 32m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → PHX 12:16DL 796 8h 35m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → DSM 09:14 → DEN 10:20UA 1521 2h 58m Denver DEN 13:18 → PHX 14:12UA 631 6h 58m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → DSM 07:59 → ORD 09:24UA 2668 1h 46m Chicago ORD 11:10 → PHX 13:02UA 2164 7h 03m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → DSM 11:40 → ATL 14:53DL 1704 1h 52m Atlanta ATL 16:45 → PHX 17:39DL 836 7h 59m 95% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → DSM 07:59 → ORD 09:24UA 2668 54m Chicago ORD 10:18 → PHX 12:09UA 2225 6h 10m 75% 61%
UnitedDetails → DSM 15:02 → ORD 16:25UA 312 49m Chicago ORD 17:14 → PHX 18:57UA 2053 5h 55m 45% 32%
AmericanDetails → DSM 18:26 → DFW 20:32AA 3930 · flown by Envoy 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:18 → PHX 21:55AA 2942 5h 29m 36% 17%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON