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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 10:25, is the safest bet: 75% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 62% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:22DL 2856 2h 53m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416 12h 23m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → DTW 12:20 → MSP 13:11DL 2697 1h 08m Minneapolis MSP 14:19 → ANC 16:50DL 411 8h 30m 88% 75%
UnitedDetails → DTW 15:32 → DEN 16:45UA 302 2h 22m Denver DEN 19:07 → ANC 22:52UA 280 11h 20m 96% 74%
DeltaDetails → DTW 12:55 → SEA 14:54DL 728 2h 42m Seattle SEA 17:36 → ANC 20:24DL 2367 11h 29m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944 3h 00m Seattle SEA 21:42 → ANC 00:34 +1DL 936 11h 48m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → DTW 08:35 → SEA 10:34DL 734 3h 06m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 11h 50m 99% 72%
AlaskaDetails → DTW 18:13 → SEA 20:02AS 313 2h 48m Seattle SEA 22:50 → ANC 01:33 +1AS 703 11h 20m 99% 67%
AmericanDetails → DTW 13:01 → ORD 13:31AA 3977 · flown by Envoy 3h 24m Chicago ORD 16:55 → ANC 21:00AA 375 11h 59m 100% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → DTW 18:13 → SEA 20:02AS 313 53m Seattle SEA 20:55 → ANC 23:39AS 711 9h 26m 62% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON