Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3685 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	DTW 08:30	BHM 09:33	18%	6%	1.4%	83%
DL 3062 Delta	DTW 16:39	BHM 17:43	19%	5%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Detroit). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 08:20 → BHM 08:15DL 3100	3h 58m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 06:17 → ATL 08:11DL 1611	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:15 → BHM 11:10DL 1017	5h 53m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:00 → LGA 08:47DL 1487	1h 57m New York	LGA 10:44 → BHM 12:08DL 4936 · flown by Endeavor	6h 08m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 12m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → BHM 13:25DL 3012	6h 00m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:22DL 2856	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 15:04 → BHM 15:05DL 3163	5h 40m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:43 → ATL 16:56DL 1983	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 18:59 → BHM 19:01DL 3044	5h 18m	98%	79%
American Details →	DTW 14:49 → CLT 16:43AA 1683	3h 14m Charlotte	CLT 19:57 → BHM 20:37AA 5205 · flown by PSA	6h 48m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:59 → ATL 17:03DL 1467	2h 57m Atlanta	ATL 20:00 → BHM 19:58DL 3202	5h 59m	98%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	DTW 14:10 → ORD 14:47UA 5381 · flown by SkyWest	1h 09m Chicago	ORD 15:56 → BHM 17:51UA 4547 · flown by GoJet	4h 41m	74%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON