Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1839 at 06:14 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 1839 DTW 06:14 → BNA 07:04 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 2316 DTW 16:01 → BNA 16:40 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1839 Southwest	DTW 06:14	BNA 07:04	3%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 2682 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:44	BNA 09:25	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 1557 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:25	BNA 13:03	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 2126 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:59	BNA 21:35	14%	5%	0.6%	75%
WN 1493 Southwest	DTW 14:08	BNA 15:03	14%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 2316 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:01	BNA 16:40	15%	4%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON