Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1163 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 1163 DTW 07:05 → BOS 09:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 1136 DTW 15:19 → BOS 17:22 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1163 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	BOS 09:02	6%	2%	0.6%	91%
B6 1236 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 07:30	BOS 09:22	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
DL 2648 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:05	BOS 11:59	11%	3%	0.6%	83%
DL 1187 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:59	BOS 23:59	16%	5%	0.6%	71%
DL 1171 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:19	BOS 16:26	17%	6%	0.6%	70%
B6 1136 JetBlue Flight history →	DTW 15:19	BOS 17:22	25%	12%	0.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON