Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, DL 4894 at 20:21, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 4894 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	DTW 20:21	CHA 22:20	15%	5%	1.1%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	DTW 05:17 → ATL 07:10DL 2375	3h 26m Atlanta	ATL 10:36 → CHA 11:30DL 1737	6h 13m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	DTW 08:25 → ATL 10:20DL 1653	3h 33m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → CHA 14:43DL 3141	6h 18m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	DTW 07:00 → LGA 08:47DL 1487	2h 13m New York	LGA 11:00 → CHA 13:20DL 4675 · flown by Endeavor	6h 20m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	DTW 10:25 → ATL 12:22DL 2856	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → CHA 15:33DL 4925 · flown by Endeavor	5h 08m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	DTW 14:43 → ATL 16:56DL 1983	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 19:36 → CHA 20:33DL 1722	5h 50m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	DTW 12:25 → ATL 14:20DL 2188	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 17:55 → CHA 19:03DL 5376 · flown by Endeavor	6h 38m	98%	78%
American Details →	DTW 06:00 → CLT 07:51AA 387	3h 07m Charlotte	CLT 10:58 → CHA 12:16AA 6004 · flown by Piedmont	6h 16m	96%	73%
Delta Details →	DTW 17:59 → ATL 20:04DL 2053	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 21:50 → CHA 22:47DL 1059	4h 48m	91%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	DTW 14:49 → CLT 16:43AA 1683	55m Charlotte	CLT 17:38 → CHA 18:54AA 5964 · flown by Piedmont	4h 05m	75%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON