Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 1439 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 1439 DTW 07:00 → CLT 08:54 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 1683 DTW 14:49 → CLT 16:43 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1439 American Flight history →	DTW 07:00	CLT 08:54	11%	3%	0.8%	94%
DL 2684 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:37	CLT 12:24	11%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 387 American Flight history →	DTW 06:00	CLT 07:51	12%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 2582 American Flight history →	DTW 10:59	CLT 12:55	13%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 2352 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:05	CLT 21:57	16%	5%	0.6%	74%
DL 1429 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:54	CLT 16:48	17%	4%	0.9%	85%
DL 8861 Delta	DTW 14:25	CLT 16:17	18%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 1683 American Flight history →	DTW 14:49	CLT 16:43	24%	6%	1.4%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON