Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 5244 at 06:49 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 5244 DTW 06:49 → DCA 08:39 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 1454 DTW 14:55 → DCA 16:34 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 51% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5244 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 06:49	DCA 08:39	6%	3%	1.2%	84%
DL 1558 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:05	DCA 08:40	7%	2%	0.7%	81%
AA 5660 American flown by PSA Flight history →	DTW 12:19	DCA 14:08	9%	4%	1.4%	80%
DL 2476 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:00	DCA 11:28	12%	3%	0.7%	87%
DL 2073 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:23	DCA 23:03	16%	5%	0.8%	70%
DL 1454 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:55	DCA 16:34	22%	5%	0.7%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON