Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 921 at 06:37 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 921 DTW 06:37 → DEN 07:45 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1844 DTW 17:13 → DEN 18:28 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 921 Southwest	DTW 06:37	DEN 07:45	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
DL 1113 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:40	DEN 09:47	9%	2%	0.4%	87%
DL 1648 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:44	DEN 13:47	13%	2%	0.4%	85%
UA 2302 United Flight history →	DTW 09:01	DEN 10:13	13%	3%	0.5%	94%
F9 2211 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 07:40	DEN 08:54	13%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 2431 Delta Flight history →	DTW 16:01	DEN 17:07	16%	3%	0.4%	72%
UA 302 United Flight history →	DTW 15:32	DEN 16:45	16%	4%	0.5%	83%
WN 1844 Southwest	DTW 17:13	DEN 18:28	22%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON