Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 482 at 07:58 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28%.

Safest bet that day AA 482 DTW 07:58 → DFW 09:54 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 1207 DTW 20:15 → DFW 22:02 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 482 American Flight history →	DTW 07:58	DFW 09:54	13%	3%	1.0%	88%
DL 2746 Delta Flight history →	DTW 08:35	DFW 10:24	15%	4%	0.6%	81%
AA 1240 American	DTW 06:01	DFW 07:56	15%	3%	1.1%	no record
F9 3177 Frontier Flight history →	DTW 11:07	DFW 13:15	15%	6%	1.6%	79%
AA 3101 American Flight history →	DTW 11:42	DFW 13:31	17%	5%	1.1%	89%
DL 1041 Delta Flight history →	DTW 12:35	DFW 14:18	19%	5%	0.6%	86%
AA 3310 American Flight history →	DTW 17:09	DFW 19:10	28%	8%	1.9%	67%
F9 3129 Frontier	DTW 21:54	DFW 23:54	28%	13%	3.9%	no record
DL 1207 Delta Flight history →	DTW 20:15	DFW 22:02	28%	13%	4.2%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON