Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2566 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–25%.

Safest bet that day DL 2566 DTW 07:15 → EWR 08:58 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 2573 DTW 14:12 → EWR 15:49 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2566 Delta Flight history →	DTW 07:15	EWR 08:58	6%	3%	1.1%	90%
UA 3652 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 06:00	EWR 07:45	6%	2%	1.9%	88%
UA 3706 United flown by Republic Flight history →	DTW 11:11	EWR 13:16	8%	3%	2.1%	88%
DL 2577 Delta Flight history →	DTW 10:15	EWR 11:56	11%	3%	1.1%	82%
YX 3681 Republic	DTW 12:54	EWR 14:51	14%	5%	1.7%	no record
YX 3433 Republic	DTW 14:57	EWR 17:08	18%	7%	2.1%	no record
YX 3692 Republic	DTW 15:52	EWR 18:03	18%	7%	2.1%	no record
DL 2609 Delta Flight history →	DTW 21:40	EWR 23:25	18%	6%	0.9%	71%
DL 2573 Delta Flight history →	DTW 14:12	EWR 15:49	25%	8%	0.9%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON